Structure and Stability of Magnetic Fields in Solar Active Region12192 Based on Nonlinear Force-Free Field Modeling

We analyze a three-dimensional (3D) magnetic structure and its stability in large solar active region(AR) 12192, using the 3D coronal magnetic field constructed under a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) approximation. In particular, we focus on the magnetic structure that produced an X3.1-class flare which is one of the X-class flares observed in AR 12192. According to our analysis, the AR contains multiple-flux-tube system, {\it e.g.}, a large flux tube, both of whose footpoints are anchored to the large bipole field, under which other tubes exist close to a polarity inversion line (PIL). These various flux tubes of different sizes and shapes coexist there. In particular, the later are embedded along the PIL, which produces a favorable shape for the tether-cutting reconnection and is related to the X-class solar flare. We further found that most of magnetic twists are not released even after the flare, which is consistent with the fact that no observational evidence for major eruptions was found. On the other hand, the upper part of the flux tube is beyond a critical decay index, essential for the excitation of torus instability before the flare, even though no coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. We discuss the stability of the complicated flux tube system and suggest the reason for the existence of the stable flux tube. In addition, we further point out a possibility for tracing the shape of flare ribbons, on the basis of a detailed structural analysis of the NLFFF before a flare.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Improvement of solar cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment

Aims. We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods. We measure the axial dipole moment using the photospheric synoptic magnetogram observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We also use the surface flux transport model for the interpretation and prediction of the observed axial dipole moment. Results. We find that the observed axial dipole moment becomes approximately constant during the period of several years before each cycle minimum, which we call the axial dipole moment plateau. The cross-equatorial magnetic flux transport is found to be small during the period, although the significant number of sunspots are still emerging. The results indicates that the newly emerged magnetic flux does not contributes to the build up of the axial dipole moment near the end of each cycle. This is confirmed by showing that the time variation of the observed axial dipole moment agrees well with that predicted by the SFT model without introducing new emergence of magnetic flux. These results allows us to predict the axial dipole moment in Cycle 24/25 minimum using the SFT model without introducing new flux emergence. The predicted axial dipole moment of Cycle 24/25 minimum is 60--80 percent of Cycle 23/24 minimum, which suggests the amplitude of Cycle 25 even weaker than the current Cycle 24. Conclusions. The plateau of the solar axial dipole moment is an important feature for the longer prediction of the solar cycle based on the SFT model.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in A&A Lette